مجلس التعليم »

15-11-2018

Oman Observer

The number of private schools in Oman have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5 per cent between 2011 and 2016, while public schools recorded a CAGR of 0.9 per cent during the same period, according to the GCC Education Industry report published by Alpen Capital, an investment banking advisory firm.

Public schools in Oman accounted for over 78 per cent of the K-12 enrolments in 2016. However, the private sector enrolments have increased at a CAGR of 8.3 per cent between 2011 and 2016 compared to only 1.2 per cent in public schools.

Primary and secondary enrolments accounted for approximately 89.5 per cent of the student enrolments in the K-12 education system in 2016.

Since the government has made enrolments mandatory for students aged six to 17, primary and secondary enrolments recorded higher Gross Enrolment Ratio (GERs) of 108.6 per cent and 107.1 per cent, respectively, in 2016.

However, the share of K-12 enrolments of the total declined from 88.0 per cent in 2011 to 84.9 per cent in 2016, while the total number of K-12 enrolments recorded a CAGR of 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2016.

In 2018, the Oman government allocated RO 1.6 billion, equivalent to 12.6 per cent of the total expenditure towards the education sector. Despite a reduction in the government’s allocation to the education sector from 21.0 per cent in 2016, it continues to strongly emphasise on the growth of the sector.

According to Alpen Capital, the total number of students in the GCC education sector is projected to reach 14.5 million in 2022, registering a CAGR of 2.3 per cent from an estimated 12.9 million in 2017.

A growing school age population, high per capita income, continued government spending and long-term strategic government initiatives is expected to drive the future growth of the GCC education sector.

Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital (ME) Limited, said, “The GCC education sector is continuing to grow on account of a rising population coupled with the growing preference for private education. Despite a slowdown in economic growth, regional governments have continued to allocate sizeable portions of their budgets to the education sector. Development of the education sector has remained a top priority for the governments across the GCC region as the regional governments recognise the importance of investing in skills and training to provide employment opportunities and boost overall competitiveness.

The sector is however facing intensifying competition, oversupply, high operational costs and a shortage of teachers, which collectively, are contributing to the increasing pressure on demand.”
Mahboob Murshed, Managing Director, Alpen Capital (ME) Limited, said, “Decline in oil prices resulted in challenging macroeconomic conditions for the GCC countries and forced the regional economies to exercise fiscal discipline. Cost rationalisation and consolidation exercised by corporates and institutions have resulted in job losses and pressure on demand across industries, including the education sector. Recent pick-up in oil prices is expected to bring new energy for infrastructural spending and business activities.

Additionally, there is considerable opportunity for consolidation in the segment which, along with favourable demographics, high disposable income and growing awareness for quality education, is likely to play a pivotal role going forward.”

Between 2017 and 2022, the pre-primary and tertiary segments in GCC is expected to grow at a faster rate than the other segments. The pre-primary segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7 per cent, whereas the tertiary segment is witness growth at a CAGR of 3.6 per cent. Primary and secondary segments are expected to witness a moderate growth rate of 1.8 per cent and 2.0 per cent CAGR, respectively.
The number of students in private schools is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent, whereas enrolments at public schools is likely to increase at a slower pace, recording a CAGR of 1.3 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

The demand for public and private schools in the GCC region is likely to increase at a CAGR of 1.9 per cent to 36,747 by 2022, reflecting a requirement of more than 3,200 schools over the next five years. The demand for public schools in the GCC is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.3 per cent whereas the demand for private schools is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent between 2017 and 2022.